The Earned Schedule Exchange


April 28, 2018
Schedule Adherence: Calculating the P-Factor

Concept: Measurement of Schedule Adherence is simple in concept and difficult in practice. Conceptually, Schedule Adherence is rooted in the basic idea behind Earned Schedule: ES is the time at which the value currently earned should have been earned. (See the dashed red line in Figure 1.) [1]

Schedule Adherence takes the idea a step further. For the value that should have been earned (as of the ES Time), it tells us whether that value was earned in the sequence in which it was planned to be earned. In short, it looks at how the value was delivered. Measurement of Schedule Adherence then gauges the degree to which the value was delivered in the planned sequence.


ES_Definition.jpg

Figure 1

Practice: Practically, measuring Schedule Adherence is challenging, first, because the level of detail required. Each atomic task in the schedule must be identified. [2] As schedules can contain hundreds or even thousands of tasks, that is not a trivial exercise.

Then, for each task, the following questions need to be answered: does the task contribute the value it is planned to contribute when it is planned to contribute it? If not, is it incomplete, or alternatively, does it deliver value prematurely?

The answers depend on the task’s PV as of the ES Time and EV as of the Actual Time. [3] If the task’s EV@AT equals its PV@ES, the task is on schedule. If a task’s EV@AT is less than its PV@ES, the task has not earned value at the planned pace. It is running behind schedule and is impeded or constrained in some way. If a task’s EV@AT is greater than its PV@ES, it is being done prematurely and runs the risk of rework.

As illustrated by Figure 2, Tasks 1 and 3 are on schedule. Tasks 2, 4, and 6 are running late. Tasks 5, 7, and 8 are early.

Lipke_Chpt_10_Chart_w_Overlay_Late.jpg 

Figure 2

The difference between each task’s PV@ES and EV@AT indicates how the task is performing. From the differences across all tasks, we can build a measurement of Schedule Adherence—the P-Factor. It is the percentage of actual value delivery that is exactly aligned with the planned sequence of value delivery.

To calculate the percentage, divide the amount of aligned value by the amount of planned value. Both amounts are relative to the ES Time, as that is the point at which the value should have been earned.

The tricky part is how to identify all and only the value exactly aligned with the schedule as of the ES Time. Inspection of a network diagram like the one in Figure 2 does not scale. Fortunately, Walt Lipke has identified a numeric approach that highlights value earned out of sequence as of the ES Time. It’s useful to represent the approach in tabular form.

In Figure 3, the table identifies each atomic task and displays the task’s total Planned Value. Next, it shows the task’s PV at the ES Time, EV at the Actual Time, and the difference between the two values.

Finally, it shows the amount of EV that is aligned with the schedule, including the value from incomplete tasks but excluding value from premature tasks. For each difference, the sign (or its absence) indicates whether or not the EV@AT is aligned: if the sign is positive, the EV@AT is not aligned; otherwise, the EV@AT is aligned. (See below for further explanation.)

PFactor_Table_Headings_1.jpg

Figure 3

To illustrate, here is an example. It starts with the raw data that’s behind the curves in Figure 2.

Lipke_Chpt_10_Chart_w_Overlay_Late_Details_Revised_1.jpg

Figure 4

Keeping in mind that the ES Time is exactly the end of Period 3 and the Actual Time is exactly the end of Period 4, the totals for each task are listed in Figure 5 under the headings PV, PV@ES, and EV@AT. The totals are followed by the difference between the EV at the Actual Time and the PV at the ES Time. The final column indicates how much EV is aligned with the scheduled delivery of value as of the ES Time.

PFactor_Table_Details_1.jpg

Figure 5

Tasks 1 and 3 have EV@AT = PV@ES and a difference of 0. Such tasks are on schedule, and their value is included in the amount that adheres to the schedule.

Tasks 2, 4, and 6 have EV@AT < PV@ES and a negative difference. Such tasks are impeded or constrained and have fallen behind schedule. That has two effects. First, their incomplete value contributes to the ES Time falling earlier than the Actual Time, i.e., incomplete value opens a gap between the two times. Second, although incomplete, the portion of the task that has been done as of the Actual Time is still in sequence. That portion is added to the amount adhering to the schedule.

Finally, Tasks 5, 7, and 8 have EV@AT >PV@ES and a positive difference. Such tasks are being done prematurely. The value delivered from those tasks falls in the gap between the ES Time and the Actual Time and is excluded from the total that adheres to the schedule. [4] In the P-Factor calculation, these amounts are subtracted from the EV at the Actual Time.

As shown in Figure 5, the total amount of value planned as of the ES Time is 40. Most of that value has been earned in accordance with the schedule, even if some of it is incomplete. There is, however, value that has been earned that is not aligned with the schedule. It is idenjtified by positive differences between EV@AT and PV@ES. In the example, the total is 7, and it is excluded from the aligned value.

Thus, 33 of the 40 units planned to be done as of the ES Time were delivered exactly as sequenced, and that makes the P-Factor equal 33/40 or 0.825.

The calculation can be expressed succinctly by the following formula:

 PFactor_Equation_v1.jpg
Figure 6

EV denotes the value earned, PV denotes the value planned, and, most important, the subscripts “i” and “j” denote the target tasks. The target tasks for the PV is the set of tasks scheduled (S) for delivery (in full or in part) as of the ES Time. The target tasks for EV is a subset (“i”) of the “j” tasks, specifically, just the “j” tasks that have delivered value aligned (A) with the PVj as of the ES Time.

So, the formula reads as: the P-Factor equals the total value actually earned in alignment with the schedule divided by the total value that should have been earned as scheduled. In both cases, the value is as of the ES Time.

Notes:

[1] For a detailed explanation of Figure 1, click here.

[2] An “atomic” task represents a stand-alone deliverable. It does not cover the detailed steps that are required to create the deliverable. Nor does it represent a rolled-up collection of deliverables. Estimates and schedules are based on atomic tasks, not on intermediate steps that do not produce a complete output or on summary tasks that roll-up atomic deliverables.

[3] See the previous post for the rationale behind using the ES Time and Actual Time as distinct reference points.

[4] The rationale for interpreting differences this way was given in the previous post. For details, click here.

References:

Lipke, W. (2013). Schedule Adherence …a useful measure for project management. PM World Journal, Vol II, Issue VI.

Lipke, W. (2012). Schedule Adherence and Rework. CrossTalk, November-December.

Lipke, W. (2011b) Schedule Adherence and Rework. PM World Today, July.

Lipke, W. (2011a) Schedule Adherence and Rework. The Measurable News, Issue 1 (corrected version).

Lipke, W. (2009b). Earned Schedule. Lulu

Lipke, W. (2009a). Schedule Adherence …a useful measure for project management. The Measurable News, Issue 3.

Lipke, W. (2008). Schedule Adherence: AUseful Measure for Project Management. CrossTalk, April.

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